The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: December Update on House Price Inflation Gone Wild

T.The dollar lost purchasing power in terms of homes at the fastest rate in six years.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Single family home prices rose 8.4% in the US, the largest increase since March 2014 year over year. This comes from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October released today. The index is based on the sales pairs method, which compares the price of a house that was sold in the current month to the price of the same house when it was sold decades ago. In comparison, the National Association of Realtors’ house price index, which is based on “median prices”, is up 15%. In this terrible economy of 9 to 20 million unemployed people, house prices have been reduced by record lows, the $ 3 trillion the Fed handed over to the markets, the relocation of work from home, and the desire not to live in a country Elevated apartment or apartment tower, and by a dose of panic buying.

Los Angeles – the grandest real estate bubble of all:

House prices on the Los Angeles subway rose 1.1% from September in October and 8.4% year-over-year, up 14.1% from the high of the insane housing bubble 1. The Case-Shiller Index was set at 100 for January 2000 in all 20 cities. Today’s Los Angeles index value of 312 means that subway property prices have more than tripled since January 2000 (+ 212%), making it the grandest housing bubble on this list.

Today’s release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, dubbed “October”, is a three-month rolling average of the closings recorded in the public records in August, September and October.

The Case-Shiller Index contains sub-indices for some cities. For Los Angeles, condominium, high, mid, and low home price data is provided in addition to total home prices.

Prices in the low-tier segment (black line) rose year-on-year by 10.4% and have almost quadrupled since January 2000 (+ 281%). During the Housing Bubble 1 this segment rose the most and during the Housing Bust it fell the most (-56%). The high-ranking prices (green line) increased by 8.0% compared to the previous year and by 188% compared to January 2000. The prices for condominiums (red line) rose the slowest in the four categories (0.5% compared to the previous month and 5.0% compared to the previous year):

San Diego:

House prices on the San Diego subway rose 1.7% in October versus September and 11.6% year over year, after nearly tripling since 2000 (+ 193%):

This is “house price inflation”: the dollar was losing purchasing power more quickly.

The Case-Shiller Index – by comparing the selling price of a house in the current month to the price of the same house when it was previously sold – measures and measures the amount of money it takes to buy the same house over time the purchasing power of the dollar in relation to houses. This makes the Case-Shiller index a measure of “house price inflation”. And we’re seeing the phenomenon that the dollar has lost purchasing power in terms of homes at the fastest rate in years.

San Francisco Bay Area:

The Case-Shiller index for “San Francisco” – the counties of Bay Area in San Francisco, San Mateo (northern part of Silicon Valley), Alameda and Contra Costa (East Bay) and Marin (North Bay) – rose by 0 in October .9% from September and rose 7.7% over the previous year. The index is up 50% from Housing Bubble 1’s insane high and has almost tripled since 2000:

San Francisco Condo Malaise::

But condo prices in the five-county Bay Area fell for the fifth straight month, down 2.3% year over year. They were below what they were first seen in March 2018 amid a historic record spate of condominiums in San Francisco itself:

Seattle:

The Seattle subway house prices rose 1.1% in October versus September and 11.7% year over year, after increasing 47% since Housing Bubble 1’s peak:

New York Subway Condos:

Not to be confused with Manhattan condos that are currently under settlement. The Case-Shiller New York City Condominium Index includes all of New York City and numerous counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut who commute to New York City for employment. “In these vast and diverse markets, the condominium index has been largely unchanged since late 2017 and has declined slightly year over year and since peaking in October 2018:

Miami:

The Case-Shiller index for the Miami subway rose 1.5% from September in October and 6.8% year-over-year, within 6.1% of its completely insane high from Housing Bubble 1:

Portland:

House prices on the Portland subway rose 0.7% in October versus September and 8.9% year over year:

Washington, DC:

The Case-Shiller index for the Washington DC subway rose 1.3% in October versus September and rose 8.2% year over year. With that, he finally topped Housing Bubble 1’s insane climax, Hallelujah:

Boston:

The index for the Boston subway rose 1.5% from September in October and 9.4% year over year:

Tampa:

House prices on the Tampa subway rose 1.6% from September in October and 8.6% year over year, and are now 1.6% above the insane peak of Housing Bubble 1:

Denver:

The index for the Denver Metro rose 0.9% from September in October and 7.0% year over year:

Phoenix:

For the Phoenix Metro, the index rose 1.7% in October compared to September and 12.7% compared to the previous year. This makes it the market with the hottest house price inflation right now on this list of Splendid Housing Bubbles ahead of San Diego (11.6%). and Seattle (11.7%). And prices have almost hit the insane peak of Housing Bubble 1:

Las Vegas:

The Las Vegas subway index rose 0.8% from September in October and 6.4% year over year, but remains 12% below Housing Bubble 1’s insane high:

Dallas:

Property prices in the Dallas subway – Counties of Collin, Dallas, Delta, Denton, Ellis, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant and Wise – rose 1.4% in October from September and up from a year earlier 6.5%. more than doubled since 2000.

This makes the Dallas subway the backlight of the most beautiful apartment blocks in America, as the remaining markets on the 20-city Case-Shiller Index have not yet reached the point where it will take twice as many dollars to buy the same home than it took 20 years ago.

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